Box Office Predictions for Thugs of Hindostan

Aamir Khan. Amitabh Bachchan. Katrina Kaif. Yash Raj Films. The most expensive Hindi film of all time. Does it get any bigger? Oh it does, when you think of the fact that this is the first time the two legendary superstars Aamir Khan and Amitabh Bachchan will be in the same film and as the main leads!

If one called Thugs of Hindostan the biggest Hindi film of the decade, or even of all-time, there was not much you can argue about!

But then…..the theatrical trailer happened!

Now seriously, what was that? That was the first question that popped in my mind once I saw it. Poor VFX. A vibe of Amitabh’s flop Eklavya and Aamir’s flop Mangal Pandey. Weird scenes of Englishmen speaking Hindi. Aamir Khan acting cartoony. After watching the trailer, I thought “disastrous trailer,” a huge contrast to Dhoom 3’s trailer which I thought was spectacular back in 2013!

Interestingly, I wasn’t the only one that shared that opinion. Many on social media criticized the trailer, especially for its similarities to Pirates of the Caribbean. Those associated with the film may deny similarities to POC, but it’s all too obvious:

Pirates of the Caribbean : Thugs of Hindostan

“Pirates” has been replaced by “Thugs” to describe a group of people, “of” is still there, and the location “Caribbean” has been replaced by “Hindostan.” This cannot be a coincidence! Furthermore, Aamir appears to be imitating Jack Sparrow, and as a result, Aamir’s acting in the trailer has been criticized, something which rarely happens!

There are other problems with Aamir Khan in the film. Whereas Yash Raj heroes have been given very manly, macho looks in recent years (think Salman in the Tiger series, Salman in Sultan, SRK in JTHJ, and Aamir himself in Dhoom 3), here he has been given a very uncomfortable to watch, a weird look that is hard to tolerate. He especially looks ridiculous in the Suraiyya song promo. Aamir is known to be associated with class, and to see him in that ridiculous look in a song that appears down-market type will be very off-putting for a huge section of the audience. Besides, Aamir acting clownish doesn’t work well. I recall not liking his acting in the trailer of Secret Superstar, and the film did not perform well either at the box office in India, even if it was only a cameo. A close example I can think of for a class-appealing actor not being appreciated for doing down-market things is Ranbir Kapoor in Besharam.


There are more problems! A huge chunk of the trailer has Amitabh Bachchan sword fighting, and ends with him delivering the main dialogue (“Aazaadi hai gunna…”). With all due respect to Mr. Bachchan and as a fan of his, the problem is that he has gotten older, and he’s not in the phase where the youth would go running to the theatres to watch his film. If the film itself features Amitabh heavily, especially with long drawn-out sword fights of his (the film has a long 2 hour 44 minutes runtime!), it will bore the audience. Besides, Amitabh’s look and feel of his character are similar to his film Eklavya, which bombed at the box office.

There are also seem to be many people upset with the fact that the leading ladies, Katrina Kaif and Fatima Sana Shaikh, have hardly been shown to do anything substantial in the promos. Fatima in particular hasn’t uttered a word in any promo, which makes one wonder how much of a role she would actually have in the film. Regarding Katrina Kaif, it must be mentioned that she has looked absolutely stunning in the promos as usual! The small glimpses of her in the trailer were one of the only things in the trailer that were loved by many and came as a breath of fresh air. It would not be surprising if she turns out to be the sole saving grace in the film!

I would also like to talk about some alarming things I have seen on social media recently. A few prominent figures have been posting polls asking about the film. “Will Thugs of Hindostan surpass Dangal to emerge Aamir’s highest grosser?” “Will you watch TOH in theatres?” The majority in both cases voted the answer “No,” which is worrying. Now, people may say that social media has minimal effect on box office collections, but social media has such a huge reach in today’s time that there is an effect. Race 3’s trailer was mocked heavily on social media and the film ended up underperforming at the box office too (a lesson I learnt, as I was expecting the film to do very well at the box office with potential ground level positivity off social media, but I was wrong). Also, the advance booking seems to be generating mixed signals so far, with some reporting huge sales and others reporting less. The thing is, Thugs of Hindostan was such a huge film (arguably the biggest Hindi film ever on paper) before the promos got released, but the promos have done more damage than good, with a poor response being received.

Now, about director Vijay Krishna Acharya. After directing the flop Tashan in 2008, he directed Dhoom 3, which was an All-Time Blockbuster. Many people online tend to criticize Dhoom 3 and call it Aamir’s worst film and whatnot, and yes the public reports were mixed, but the fact is that there was a section of the audience that enjoyed the film (I personally loved it!). The film had earthquake level pre-release buzz with a huge response to its promos and tremendous curiosity to see Aamir in a Dhoom film, which resulted in a record-breaking opening day (on a non-holiday!), and then the mixed WOM (Word of Mouth) with holidays was enough to make the film the biggest grosser ever. Unfortunately, with TOH, Vijay seems to be back to his Tashan roots, with some down-market looking things and Aamir’s character and dialogue delivery somewhat resembling that of Anil Kapoor.

Everything in TOH seems downgraded from Dhoom 3. The Aazaadi hai gunaah dialogue seems like a poor version of Bande hai hum uske. The Suraiyya song seems like a poor version of Kamli. Whereas everything in Dhoom 3 looked grand and visually appealing, everything in TOH looks worse, at times downmarket (the Suraiyya song, for example). Where in Dhoom 3 Aamir had a very intense vibe to his character and a terrific physique, in TOH he looks like a clown.

Aamir himself doesn’t seem to be talking highly of TOH. Rather, he mentions being nervous and not being afraid to fail. There have also been reports of him not being happy with the negative viewer reaction to VFX in the trailer, him wanting to change the climax of the film, and him wanting to trim the film to make it shorter. Also, Aamir said that this is perhaps the only time in his career that he has selected a film based on his character. The sad part is, his acting as that character has been criticized by many!

As the film is releasing on the biggest holiday of the year, a record opening day can be expected. There are many families in India that venture the cinema hall after Diwali festivities are over to watch a film, and they will surely go to watch two of the biggest superstars ever in India Aamir Khan and Amitabh Bachchan being in the same film for the first time! Big solo films released on this holiday always tend to break the record for highest collections in a single day, be it Ra One, Krrish 3, Happy New Year, or Prem Ratan Dhan Payo. Thugs of Hindostan will beat the highest collections in a single day record of Sanju (which collected 46.73 crores nett on day three in only a Hindi version!). However, the trouble will start from day two onwards. I feel that the audience WOM (Word of Mouth) for Thugs of Hindostan will be negative, big drops will be seen over the four-day weekend, and the film will crash at the box office on Monday. As the saying goes….the bigger they are, the harder they fall!

My Box Office Predictions for Thugs of Hindostan (all versions, all languages, all India):

Opening Day: 49 crore nett (record opening day for Hindi films)

Opening 4-Day Weekend: 120 crore nett

Lifetime Collections: 178 crore nett

Overall Verdict: Flop

Believe me, everyone, I didn’t want to seem so negative. Even after the poor trailer, I thought that Aamir has to be smarter than this, and there must be something in the film. I thought that maybe, as usual, Aamir will give the highest grosser of all time, just as I correctly predicted for Dhoom 3, PK, and Dangal before they released. I still thought that maybe Aamir could open the 400 crore club this time. Unfortunately, though, I just cannot find any redeeming factor in Thugs of Hindostan. The lack of novelty in the storyline only makes things worse. I am highly disappointed by the promos. It also hit me that as perfect as Aamir may be, he is not God….he is human, and it is only in human nature to make mistakes. Thugs of Hindostan will not only be remembered as one of Aamir Khan's worst films, but it will also be remembered for how a perfectionist went wrong!

As always, you can follow me on Twitter at https://twitter.com/BobbyS_BO.

69 comments on “Box Office Predictions for Thugs of Hindostan”

  1. what a joke Bobby sindhu opening record and results flop
    this movie earn minimum 270-300cr
    I challenge your predictions
    I know movie is copy of pirates of creeabian

  2. Aamir Khan the world biggest superstar
    God of Indian cinema Pride of India
    Thugs of ho 500cr in India 1000cr worldwide
    And after China it collect 3000cr

  3. This prediction is going to wrong again.....I don't understand your logic....I think u are forgetting that Diwali is a big festive session and with a huge bugut film u can't predict 178 cr only. I can challenge u that in worst scenario it will collect more than 250 cr. Note it.

  4. never seen someone as bias as bobby sidhu!!
    i guess this movie will collect more than 200 crores in the fast weekend.

  5. thugs of hindostan's hindi version only will open above 50 crore net( golmal again with a clash opened above 30 crore net on the same day last year with no buzz and also having ajay devgun whose multiplex pull is nowhere near aamir). thugs opening day ( hindi) will be 50-55 crore net. the question is will it cross the 37.5 crore net advance of bahubali which seems unbeatable as the highest for bollywood film is only 25 crore ( tzh) .and if toh fails to beat bahubali advance then for the next 2 or 3 years noone will beat that, mark my words. so that's what we need aamir to do as that is depending on his stardom and going by the things aamir has done in his career i think he will beat that. the opening day 41 crore is certain to be beaten and it will also definetly beat the 127 crore weekend of bahubali2(hindi). the 246 crore first week of bahubali and lifetime record of dangal will depend on wom.

    and those people who are saying toh trailer is bad and zero trailer is great. i am asking a simple question to those srk fans will zero had a better advance booking and opening that toh. if not then either srk is a very small star because he can't give better opening even with a great trailer or toh trailer is actualy better. srk fans choose any of the 2. because i know very well that toh opening will be far bigger than zero.

    1. how many times Aamir deliverd record breaking opening in the last 10 years in his so called best phase? only once and that was dhoom 3 which neat chennai express's openkng day collection by just 2 crores despite the fact that dhoom 3 was the biggest franchise of hindi cinema. And do you know how many times this small star SRK deliverd record breaking opening day in the last 10 years in his so called bad phase? Three. RA.One,Chennai Express And Happy New Year. And Zero will have a non-holiday release so please don't compare it with TOH which will release on the biggest national holiday. Nevertheless, if you want to, compare the weekend collections.

      1. @Shahid kapor fan, lol on your math you moron. first check the release time and genre of all their films in last 10 years if you have some IQ left. according to that logic even race 3 was a franchise why did it fail to get record breaking opening? you are just a jealous hater. the truth is aamir is biggest superstar and the only thing lacked was a pure holiday release as all his films released on workind day including dhoom 3. in commercial film he is still the biggest crowd puller. just get a life jealous moron.

        1. Then how blind Aamir fans comparing Holiday release TOH with Non holiday release Zero. TOH have 1st day and weekend both holidays but in case of Zero opening day is working day as well as weekend is normal non holiday weekend.

          1. You hypocrite didnt you morons compared PK's opening with happy new year opening???? Didnt you fools started jumping with happy new year which opened on holiday broke dhoom 3's non holiday opening record by small margin????

  6. I am a SRK fan, and I find this article absolutely harsh.
    How can you assume the film is so bad and the WOM will be negative? It might be or might not be.
    From the article, it seems that you have assumed TOH to be a bad film already. I agree the promos have been dull and not so good, but we should at least wait for the film to arrive before we jump into any sort of conclusion.

  7. Hahaha..
    Boby prediction Dena band kar de...

    In worst case TOH will collect 350cr beating all movies except Dangal..

    My prediction..

    Fist day-58cr
    Weekend(4 days)-205cr
    LT-545cr...India net

    Ye sallu srk ki movie nahi hai ye movie hai Aamir The Global Megastar ki..

    Diwali ko Box office pe bahot bada Dhamaka hone Wala hai aur bahubali2 ka record easily tutega..

    Take a screen shot!

    Thugs of hindostan sab record todnewali hai..

    Twitter pe 4-5 log bhonkenge toh kuch farak nahi padega kyunki Aamir ki power hai neutral audience ...

    Neutral audience box office ko hila ke rakh denge aur Aamir hai to log ankhe band kar ke dekhne jayenge...

    Bahot hi entertaing movie hogi...
    Wait n watch...

    Aamir naam hi kaffi hai ATHG/ATBB ke liye.

    1. It will be a Flop for sure.. it can be seen and Aamir is not confident.
      He never market his movies but this time he did which shows lack of confidence.
      Looks like his Mela movie.. very dark with limited comic factor.

  8. TOH creates history in advance booking..
    Still 2 days to go..

    I m very sure 58cr ki opening hogi...

    Agar below 53cr opening hue toh Mai bollyarena hamesha ke liye chodd dunga..

    1. Prashaya sharam hai tho bollyearna choodu...tune jo prediction diya 58 cr bhi nhi hua ...53 cr bhi nhi hua...life time collection tho chod.1 st day toh ne 52.75 all india mai kiya ...hindi mai sirf 50 cr kiya....agar sharam hai tho ye site chood ...aur apna wada pura kar...

  9. Dude if you consider the twitter and YouTube comment section as the theatre going audience..then bro u are highly mistaken..the films risky due to high budget..it's true..
    Even the buzz in twitter for jhms was superb..rest is history..
    If toh doesn't connect then it'll be a flop..manual pandey was a very very boring film..bt this one looks entertaining..
    U are just horrible man

  10. You will have an egg on your face if the final product is decent. You cannot judge how entertaining a film will be from its trailers. TOH trailer and promos may seem poor, but are still a million times better than Race 3's.
    TOH may turn out to be a bad film, but if it entertains like Dhoom 3 then nothing can stop it from crossing 300 crores.

  11. This time you will be correct bobby sidhu,,,,TOH ka trailer+songs+ amir ki over acting+ poor vfx sab bakwaas h...film 250crs bhi India me nhi kar payega...

    Trailer to 2.0 aur zero ka bhi average tha lekin I think ki is baar 2.0 baazi mar le jayegi..

    Aamir ke fans ka ghamand first weekend ke baad tut jayega...?

    1. I will wait for you to come and show us your face after the release. I hope you don't hide as i have already taken screenshot of your comment and i will show it back to you on your face if u have guts don't hide after the release of the film which is not too far. till then i suggest you to buy burnol as you badly need it.

  12. Poor prediction as in worst case this lifetime prediction will be cross within first 5 days , i know some people who are habitual praise Hollywood shits definitely not going to like it but does it matter.
    This film is going to create havoc at smaller center & being the biggest star of multiplex aamir name give this one a big pull.
    1st Day 50 Cr
    Extended Weekend 175 Cr
    Extended Week 260 Cr
    Lifetime 380-400 cr

  13. Your lifetime prediction will be totally wrong...
    It is not far away to reach the life time total collection of TOH..Why bollyarena is posting your guest article when you are predicting only 178 crores...

  14. The movie will definitely have something. Its Aamir Khan who keeps movie in silence and not allow anyone to get into till Someome actually watch the movie ! It’s going at least 300+ crores !

  15. Good to be back.

    Lol. The LT you are predicting will be done within 6 days itself.
    Don't troll yourself.

  16. Your prediction for total lifetime collection of TOH is 178 cr nett..which is completely baseless. Aamir is giving masterpiece movies for last 8 to 10 years. If People will go to theatre to watch Aamir only..it ll be more than 200crs..How bollyarena has posted your prediction without checking it

  17. Any way, just a day to go before the arrival of our GOD.. Aamirians, how excited are you guyz???

  18. Well it's an opinion....and yes real big films that are through & through commercial have this risk of disappointing big time..

    However, in my opinion, the makers sound confident enough. Screening held for distributors also saw a positive response (as reported). A member of Pakistan censor board also had nice things to say about the film.....anyway

    We shall know soon!!

  19. Although this article is a joke.
    But still Bollyarena, I wonder how you allowed such a negative article on your website
    I remember, you used to ban users, for spreading negativity about movies.
    And now this ??
    I think this is the time to part way with this site.

  20. You r lier. Dangal k time tune below 300 batya tha. To predection tera sahi kaise hua.
    Yes i also feel k ye movie me o baat nai lag rhi. But tu jhuta hai. Or ye movie atleast 275 to kregi hi

  21. Oh no one commented ,amerians common what happend here im just shocked too see this prediction

  22. How some idiots are Comparing TOH opening and Zero opening. TOH is releasing on biggest day. Whereas Zero is normal working Friday release. Being a working day release target for Zero is TZH and Sanju opening day of 34 crore. Compare to logical karo

  23. rubbish prediction. aamir is the biggest superstar of india. min 250 crores even if its bad.

  24. AAMIR’S choice of movies, his commitment to his work & dedication to the movie will be remembered forever.Maybe I believe he has lesser fan following than his contemporaries but to watch his movie, movie loving audience wait for his movies.It is also a right thing that he is human being & he can go wrong.But the person writing article wanted to predict the boxoffice fate of TOH, but it seems he had watch the movie & reviewing & criticising the movie which is the cheap thing he is doing.By doing this he wanted to downgrade Indian movies & he don’t want Indian movie to grow up.Until you have not watch the movie you should not write such a wrong thing which is transforming into wrong information.

    1. @Ankit j you are totally wrong. aamir has biggest fan following compared to all his contemporaries. are you on weed or what? just watch his craze in China, Hong Kong, turkey, and many other countries. it's insane. his fan following in overseas alone is much more than salman's total fan following worldwide.

  25. Bobby you can do all the calculations you want but you can't calculate the hard work Aamir does for his film, and this trailers shows hard work. Bhai tu Dekh Thursday say Kaya hota hay

  26. For the first time I liked Parshya Aunty's Comment...."Agar below 53cr opening hue toh Mai bollyarena hamesha ke liye chodd dunga."
    It would be great that a disgusting public like him is going to leave the page soon.

  27. Advance is going to set all time record for a Hindi film. The craze is huge. 178 Crore will be crossed in first 4 days.

  28. This very same hypocrite bobby said that there is a difference between online polls and ground reality during race 3 predictions. that means he is a pakka salman ka chamcha. ha ha ha. I am laughing at his hypocrisy. any ways this movie will be blockbuster even with bad content. get a life.

  29. Guys Take My Words To Screenshots After Releases of Thugs Of Hindustani: This Bobby Sandhu DUDE Will Regrate and It Will Be Hard for him to Write Again Infront of Audiance, this Horrible and Baised Article Like This, Which Seems Irresposiple and unEthical Journalist Deeds of Someone Proffessionalism ?

  30. Aamir fans are worst fan base. I see on twitter almost all Aamir fans abusing other actors. Ye Aamir fans to Salman fans se v harami hain.

    1. OH as if shahrukh fans are saints who never use abuse. get a life hypocrite. srk fans are the worst fan base worse than salman fans. they are visible in any site and abuse other actors even if it has nothing to do with srk. they are most idiotic and abusive people. so srk fans are harami. f**k off.

  31. bakwas trailor...boring scene....no one interested to watch this movie....I like zero trailor really so much...

  32. The movie already earned 140 crore from satellite and music rights. If movie is made of 300 crore it require only 160 crore (300 - 140) to reach break even. Now it collected 52 crore net (all language) in India on the first day. Aamir has big fan base outside India also. Probably you prediction will be wrong again. Producer no way loose money.

  33. Bobby Sindhu you are genius, not a single person predicted this, nobody expected this, but my friend you did and what a prediction. They should award you.

  34. Jitne aamir fans Bobby bhai ko gali de rahe the wo sab galia ab wapas unhi k upar aagayi hai..Lol poor aamir fans ...Rip toh..
    Bobby bhai ne to fir bhi 178cr bola tha result dekh kar to 150cr bhi mushkil dikh gayi aamir ki aukat race 3 to is se bhi jyda negative review k baad 170cr kar liya tha... Jbki race 3 1st day collection 29 cr tha.. or toh ka 50cr. Agr diwali ki chutti na hoti to talaash ki tarah ye bhi 90cr par atak jaati ... Aukat aukaat karte the salman k time ab kya hua parshya fatt gayi ...Bhagode bhagode china gya kya bhaag k bhagode ..

  35. Even Producer figures (All Languages) won't reach 150cr. That too with 10% hike in ticket prices after Sanju already had a 10-15% hike this year. Else this movie would have done less than Tubelight and Raees (Clash with Kaabil). Dilwale doing what it did against Bajirao now seems like an achievement. I have new found respect for PRDP's boxoffice. Even Race3 looks face-saving in comparison.

    Aamir will bounce back big time history says, Laggan and DCH followed Mela. RDB, Fanaah, TZP followed Mangal Pandey and D3 (ATB), PK (ATB) and Dangal (ATB) followed Talaash.

  36. Going through reading the comments on this article and laughing my head off. Where is everybody now?!?! Stupid people were rude to Bobby and mocked him. TOH itself is a big mockery. How’s that for ironic!

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